Is Donald Trump's 100 Percent Tariff on Movies Even Possible?

Bloodsport is one of Donald Trump’s favorite movies. He told The New Yorker in 1997 that he often returns to the late ‘80s action flick, which follows a United States Army Captain (played by Jean-Claude Van Damme) who travels overseas to defeat his foreign opponents in an underground martial arts tournament.

Critics have already explored at length why such a film resonates with the President. But after he announced a "100 percent tariff" on films that are produced outside of the United States this past weekend, it’s fair to say that Trump likely doesn’t know that one of his favorite “American” films—starring a Belgian actor—was shot entirely on location in Hong Kong. People vote against their own interests all the time. They can certainly enact policies against them as well.

Per the President’s latest ramblings on Truth Social:

“The Movie Industry in America is DYING a very fast death. Other Countries are offering all sorts of incentives to draw our filmmakers and studios away from the United States. Hollywood, and many other areas within the U.S.A., are being devastated. This is a concerted effort by other Nations and, therefore, a National Security threat. It is, in addition to everything else, messaging and propaganda! Therefore, I am authorizing the Department of Commerce, and the United States Trade Representative, to immediately begin the process of instituting a 100% Tariff on any and all Movies coming into our Country that are produced in Foreign Lands. WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!”

As is often the case, it’s difficult to say just what Trump means here. Will the tariff also affect American films that shoot overseas? Many upcoming American blockbusters including Dune: Messiah, Avatar 3, and Avengers: Doomsday, are all currently shooting in locations outside of the country. And according to The Hollywood Reporter, “Roughly 45 percent of A Minecraft Movie's $875 million global box office haul—the $400 million it made at the U.S. box office—could theoretically be susceptible to Trump’s "100 percent tariff" depending on when the President's policy goes into effect.

As one might expect, a lot of Hollywood’s money is made outside of Hollywood itself. So, let’s break down some of the largest questions to Trump's newly proposed 100 percent movie tariff.

It’s no secret that filming in the U.S. is incredibly expensive. Outside of Atlanta, which has increased production due to the state’s 30 percent tax break, it is far cheaper for studios to film overseas. Unless California plans to offer similar tax incentives, Trump’s tariff will simply raise the cost of producing a film no matter where it chooses to shoot. It’s a lose-lose situation. Without similar tax breaks at home, the tariff will only decrease the quality of films. Studios would likely adapt to other controversial cost-cutting measures such as more digital green screen shooting and AI.

It seems safe to assume that the tariff would also affect series production (should it go into effect at all), including streaming services such as Netflix, Prime Video, Disney, and Max. Many of these services currently reap massive rewards from their global streaming base. Netflix’s Squid Game is produced in South Korea, Disney’s Andor shot in London, and HBO’s The Last of Us films in British Colombia. The list goes on. Would streaming services pull their most lucrative shows off their platforms to avoid the tariffs, or would other shows simply suffer as a result by taking on even smaller budgets?

According to The New York Times, a spokesman for the White House stated that "no final decisions on foreign film tariffs have been made." Furthermore, California Governor Gavin Newsom’s office told Deadline that Trump has "no authority" to impose the tariffs. Per the outlet, "the initial reaction from the Governor’s team is sure to take more solid form as more becomes known about what Trump really is up to and wants to see done."

The real danger? Should foreign countries respond with their own 100 percent tariff to American films, I’m not certain that Hollywood could recover. According to Bloomberg, the U.S. exports nearly three times as much entertainment as it imports. If you thought Hollywood had enough of a problem recovering post-COVID, just wait until a successful film like Barbie—which grossed over $630 million in the U.S. and Canada, per BoxOffice Mojo—loses a significant chunk of the additional $810 million that the film earned in overseas box office sales. Outside of issues regarding budget cuts and a decrease in quality, retaliation is easily the largest deterrent.

Worst of all? Trump could kiss any plans for another Bloodsport film goodbye.