A cold air mass and front 11 will cover the country; heavy rains will occur in these states from Monday to Thursday.

MEXICO CITY (apro).- The effects of cold front 11 are expected this week, with a marked drop in temperatures in several regions of the country, according to the National Meteorological Service (SMN).

The National Water Commission (Conagua) reported that early morning temperatures of between -5 and 5 degrees Celsius will occur in more than half the country between Monday, October 27, and Thursday, October 30. It also detailed which states will experience continued showers and isolated, heavy rain.

During Sunday night and early Monday morning, frontal system number 10 will extend over the northeast of the country, interacting with a trough in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere and the subtropical jet stream, causing winds of 10 to 20 kilometers per hour with gusts of 35 to 50 km/h in Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas.

However, the frontal system and upper-level trough are expected to move southeastern United States overnight, no longer affecting the country.

Likewise, low pressure channels over the interior of the country and the Yucatan Peninsula, the entry of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, and tropical wave number 39 that will move south of the western coasts of the country, will cause heavy rains in Chiapas (south), rains and showers in Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, State of Mexico (southwest), Guerrero, Oaxaca, Veracruz (Huasteca Alta, Huasteca Baja, Totonaca and Olmeca regions), Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatan and Quintana Roo, and isolated rains in Nuevo Leon (center and south), Tamaulipas (Mante and South regions), Veracruz (Nautla, Capital, Sotavento, Las Montañas, Papaloapan and Los Tuxtlas regions), San Luis Potosí (Huasteca region), Hidalgo (Huasteca and Sierra de Tenango regions), Puebla (Sierra Norte, Sierra Nororiental regions) and Mixteca) and Morelos.

Northerly winds of 15 to 30 km/h (9 to 18 mph) with gusts of 45 to 60 km/h (28 to 37 mph) are also forecast in Oaxaca and Chiapas (Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec) and waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters (5 to 8 feet) high along the coasts of Yucatán (northeast) and Quintana Roo. Tropical Wave 39 is expected to move toward the western Pacific Ocean, no longer affecting the country. Meanwhile, an anticyclonic circulation in the mid-levels of the atmosphere over the western part of the country will maintain a low probability of rain in the Northern and Central Plateaus.

Tomorrow, the approach and entry of a new cold front (number 11) into northwestern Mexico will bring wind gusts of 35 to 50 km/h to the aforementioned region.

Waves of 2.0 to 3.0 meters in height are also expected on the western coast of the Baja California Peninsula.

Likewise, a dry line will develop over Coahuila, causing strong gusts of wind in the north and northeast of the country.

On the other hand, low-pressure channels over the interior of the country and the Yucatan Peninsula, combined with the entry of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, and atmospheric instability, will cause scattered rains and showers in states in the northeast, west, east, center, northeast, east, south and southeast of Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula, with heavy rains in Chiapas (northeast), Tabasco (east), Campeche (southwest) and Quintana Roo; in addition to waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters high in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the coasts of Quintana Roo.

Finally, an anticyclonic circulation in the mid-levels of the atmosphere over the Northern Mesa will maintain a low probability of rain in the aforementioned region and the Central Mesa, in addition to an increase in afternoon temperatures over entities of the Northern Mesa, the Central Mesa, northeastern and eastern Mexico.

Intervals of showers and heavy rainfall could be accompanied by lightning and hail.

Valley of Mexico

In the morning, clear skies will be cool in the region and cold in the highlands of the Valley of Mexico. In the afternoon, warm skies will be partly cloudy with a chance of scattered showers and possible lightning strikes in the southwest of the State of Mexico, and no rain in Mexico City.

The minimum temperature in Mexico City will be 10 to 12°C and the maximum will be 26 to 28°C. Toluca is expected to have a minimum temperature of 5 to 7°C and a maximum of 23 to 25°C. Winds from the north and northeast will be 10 to 20 km/h (6 to 12 mph) with gusts of up to 40 km/h (25 mph), according to the National Meteorological Service (SMN).

72-96 Hour Forecast Summary (Tuesday, October 28th to Thursday, October 30th)

On Tuesday, cold front 11 will enter and travel across the northwest and north of Mexico, interacting with a dry line over Coahuila and the subtropical jet stream, causing showers and strong winds with gusts of 65 to 80 km/h in Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas.

During the course of Wednesday, cold front 11 will move over the northeast and east of Mexico and enter the Gulf of Mexico, generating showers and heavy to very heavy rain in these regions. Meanwhile, the cold air mass associated with the front will cause a very strong to intense "Norte" event with wind gusts of 85 to 100 km/h on the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz, with gusts of 65 to 80 km/h in Oaxaca (Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec) and Chiapas, and with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h on the coasts of Tabasco and Campeche; in addition to a marked drop in temperatures over entities in the north, northeast, east, and center of Mexico.

On Thursday, cold front 11 will extend over the Gulf of Mexico, bringing showers and heavy rain to the northeast, east, and southeast of Mexico. The associated cold air mass will maintain the "Norte" event with wind gusts of 75 to 90 km/h in Oaxaca (Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec) and Chiapas, and 40 to 60 km/h along the coasts of Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo, decreasing throughout the day. It will also maintain a marked drop in temperatures over areas in the north, northeast, east, and center of the country.

During the Conagua forecast period, there will be a low probability of rain in the northwest, north, and center of the country.

Risks

• Heavy rainfall could reduce visibility, increase river and stream levels, and cause ponding, landslides, and flooding.
• Wind gusts could cause trees and billboards to fall.

Rain forecast for Monday, October 27:

• Showers with heavy rains (25 to 50 mm): Chiapas (northeast), Tabasco (east), Campeche (southwest) and Quintana Roo.
• Intervals of showers (5 to 25 mm): Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Veracruz (Olmeca region) and Yucatán.
• Isolated rains (0.1 to 5 mm): Nuevo León, Tamaulipas (Mante and Centro regions), San Luis Potosí (Altiplano region), Veracruz (Nautla, Capital, Sotavento, Las Montañas, Papaloapan and Los Tuxtlas regions), Puebla (Sierra Nororiental, Valle Serdán and Tehuacán-Sierra Negra regions) and State of Mexico.

Temperature forecast for Monday, October 27:

• Maximum temperatures of 35 to 40 °C: Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, Sinaloa, Michoacán, Guerrero, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
• Maximum temperatures of 30 to 35 °C: Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Chihuahua, Durango, San Luis Potosí (east), Puebla (north and southwest), Veracruz and Tabasco.
• Minimum temperatures of -5 to 0°C with frost during the early hours of Monday: mountainous areas of Baja California, Chihuahua, and Durango.
• Minimum temperatures of 0 to 5°C during the early hours of Monday: mountainous areas of Zacatecas, Guanajuato, State of Mexico, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Veracruz, and Oaxaca.

Wind and wave forecast for Monday, October 27, 2025:

• Northerly winds of 15 to 30 km/h with gusts of 45 to 60 km/h: Oaxaca and Chiapas (Gulf of Tehuantepec)
• Winds of 10 to 20 km/h with gusts of 35 to 50 km/h: Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora (north), Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas.
• Wave heights of 2.0 to 3.0 meters: western coast of the Baja California Peninsula.
• Waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters high: Gulf of Tehuantepec and coasts of Quintana Roo.

Tuesday, October 28:

• Heavy rains with very heavy rainfall (50 to 75 mm): Chiapas (center and south).
• Showers with heavy rains (25 to 50 mm): Michoacán (south) and Guerrero (coast).
• Intervals of showers (5 to 25 mm): Nuevo León, Tamaulipas (Border, Central, Southern and Mante regions), San Luis Potosí (Middle and Huasteca regions), Veracruz (Upper Huasteca, Lower Huasteca and Totonaca regions), Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán, Quintana Roo, Jalisco, Colima, State of Mexico and Oaxaca.
• Isolated rains (0.1 to 5 mm): Querétaro, Hidalgo (Huasteca region), Puebla (Sierra Norte and Sierra Nororiental regions) and Veracruz (Los Tuxtlas and Olmeca regions).
• Winds of 35 to 50 km/h with gusts of 65 to 80 km/h: Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas.
• Winds of 10 to 25 km/h with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h: Chihuahua and Oaxaca (Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec).
• Winds of 10 to 20 km/h with gusts of 35 to 50 km/h: Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, Durango, Zacatecas and San Luis Potosí.
• Waves of 2.0 to 3.0 meters high: western coast of the Baja California Peninsula; and during early Wednesday morning: Tamaulipas coast.
• Waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters high: Gulf of Tehuantepec and coasts of Quintana Roo.
• Maximum temperatures of 35 to 40 °C: Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, Sinaloa, Michoacán, Guerrero, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
• Maximum temperatures of 30 to 35 °C: Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Chihuahua (southwest), Durango (west), San Luis Potosí, Puebla (north and southwest), Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas and Tabasco.
• Minimum temperatures of 0 to 5°C during the early hours of Wednesday: mountainous areas of Chihuahua, Durango, Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Michoacán, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Veracruz, and Oaxaca.

Wednesday, October 29:

• Heavy rains with very heavy rainfall (50 to 75 mm): Puebla (Sierra Nororiental, Valle Serdán and Tehuacán-Sierra Negra regions), Veracruz (Totonaca, Nautla, Capital, Las Montañas and Papaloapan regions) and Oaxaca (north).
• Showers with heavy rains (25 to 50 mm): Hidalgo (Huasteca region), Puebla (Sierra Norte region), Veracruz (Huasteca Alta, Huasteca Baja, Sotavento, Los Tuxtlas and Olmeca regions), Tabasco, Chiapas (north and south) and Guerrero (coast).
• Intervals of showers (5 to 25 mm): Nuevo León, Tamaulipas (Central, Southern and Mante regions), San Luis Potosí (Middle and Huasteca regions), Querétaro (Sierra Gorda region), Hidalgo (Sierra Alta, Huasteca, Sierra Gorda, Sierra Baja, Sierra de Tenango, Tulancingo Valley regions), Tlaxcala, State of Mexico, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
• Isolated rains (0.1 to 5 mm): San Luis Potosí (Altiplano and Centro regions), Guanajuato, Puebla (Angelopolis region) and Nayarit.
• “Norte” event with winds of 55 to 70 km/h and gusts of 85 to 100 km/h: coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz.
• A "northern" wind event will offer wind speeds of 35 to 50 km/h and gusts of 65 to 80 km/h during the night: Oaxaca (Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec) and Chiapas; and 10 to 25 km/h with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h on the coasts of Tabasco and Campeche.
• Winds of 10 to 20 km/h with gusts of 35 to 50 km/h: Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, State of Mexico, Mexico City, Tlaxcala, Puebla and the coasts of Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
• Waves of 3.0 to 4.0 meters high: coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz; and at night: Gulf of Tehuantepec.
• Waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters high, during the night: coasts of Tabasco and Campeche.
• Maximum temperatures of 35 to 40 °C: Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, Sinaloa, Michoacán and Guerrero.
• Maximum temperatures of 30 to 35 °C: Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Veracruz (south), Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
• Minimum temperatures of -5 to 0°C during the early hours of Thursday: mountainous areas of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, State of Mexico, Puebla, and Tlaxcala.
• Minimum temperatures of 0 to 5°C during the early hours of Thursday: mountainous areas of Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Michoacán, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Veracruz, and Oaxaca.

Thursday, October 30:

• Showers with heavy rains (25 to 50 mm): Veracruz (Sotavento, Las Montañas, Papaloapan, Los Tuxtlas and Olmeca regions), Oaxaca (north and east), Chiapas (north) and Tabasco.
• Intervals of showers (5 to 25 mm): Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Puebla (Serdán Valley and Tehuacán-Sierra Negra regions), Veracruz (Capital region) and Campeche.
• Isolated rains (0.1 to 5 mm): Sinaloa, Durango, State of Mexico, Puebla (Northeastern Sierra region), Yucatan and Quintana Roo
• “Norte” event with winds of 45 to 60 km/h and gusts of 75 to 90 km/h: Oaxaca (Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec) and Chiapas, decreasing throughout the day.
• “Norte” event with winds of 10 to 25 km/h and gusts of 40 to 60 km/h: coasts of Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
• Winds of 10 to 20 km/h with gusts of 35 to 50 km/h: Chihuahua and Durango.
• Waves of 3.0 to 4.0 meters in height: Gulf of Tehuantepec.
• Waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters high: coasts of Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche and Yucatán.
• Maximum temperatures of 35 to 40 °C: Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, Sinaloa, Michoacán and Guerrero.
• Maximum temperatures of 30 to 35 °C: Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
• Minimum temperatures of -5 to 0°C during the early hours of Friday: mountainous areas of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, State of Mexico, Puebla, and Tlaxcala.
• Minimum temperatures of 0 to 5°C during the early hours of Friday: mountainous areas of Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Michoacán, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Veracruz, and Oaxaca.