Health: Do you know your diabetes risk?
Based on a few key data points, you can estimate your risk of developing diabetes in the next ten years. You'll need these four values.
More than half a million people in Germany alone are newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes each year. Currently, nearly 9 million people in Germany are affected by this metabolic disease. The consequences are sometimes dramatic: Persistently elevated blood sugar damages nerves, blood vessels, and organs.
Fortunately, this development can be prevented. In the early stages, targeted lifestyle changes can, at best, avert the disease. This requires identifying high-risk patients, for whom timely intervention would be particularly beneficial.
Research results with practical benefitsNow, a recent scientific study has shown that four simple values should be sufficient to make reliable statements about the individual risk of diabetes:
- Old
- Gender
- Weight (BMI)
- blood sugar
If you don't know your BMI, you can find out your BMI here. You can find out your fasting blood sugar level through a blood test. This value is determined at your doctor's office, for example, during your regular health checkup, which you are entitled to every three years starting at age 35 (Check-Up 35).
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The cohort study (Rochester Epidemiology Project study) examined nearly 45,000 US adults aged 18 to 65. 8.6 percent of them developed type 2 diabetes within about seven years, and within ten years, the figure rose to 12.8 percent.
The research team gained some interesting insights:
- All four parameters actually have a significant influence on the risk of diabetes
- The respective variables have an additive effect, i.e. the more factors apply, the greater the risk
- In men, the risk is generally higher, more precisely, 1.3 times higher
- Even fasting blood sugar levels in the upper normal range (95–99 mg/dl, 5.3–5.5 mmol/l) increased the risk of diabetes. If obesity is added to the mix, the likelihood of developing diabetes doubles. As blood sugar levels increase, the risk quadruples.
Based on the data collected, these four risk categories emerge:
| Risk category | BMI | Fasting blood sugar | Gender, age |
| Lowest risk (approx. 5 percent) | 18.5–24.9 | 80-94 mg/dl (4.4-5.2 mmol/l) | Women under 30 years of age |
| Slightly increased risk (approx. 12 percent) – even with one of the two factors | 25–29.9 | 95-99 mg/dl (5.3-5.5 mmol/l) | |
| Medium risk (approx. 26 percent) | 30–34.9 | 100-104 mg/dL (5.6-5.8 mmol/L) | |
| Highest risk (up to 56 percent) | from 40 | 120-125 mg/dl (6.7-6.9 mmol/l) | Men aged 60 and over |
"The results impressively demonstrate how important fasting blood sugar is for risk assessment," emphasizes Prof. Dr. Julia Szendrödi, President of the German Diabetes Society (DGG), from Heidelberg. Because "this opens up opportunities for effective prevention," adds DDG Vice President Dr. Tobias Wiesner, a diabetologist from Leipzig. "We can identify affected individuals earlier and talk to them about lifestyle changes – for example, regarding diet, exercise, and weight control."
If you take your blood sugar level, step on the scales, and then use the chart to guide yourself, you will find out whether you are at risk and can ask your doctor for advice and help in good time.
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